Prof. Dr. Sözen: I Do Not Expect Cyprus to Be Drawn Into Conflict; People Should Remain Calm

“People Should Remain Calm; I Do Not Believe Civilian Targets Are Seriously at Risk”
Sözen emphasized the need to analyze developments from a broad perspective rather than a Cyprus-centered, narrow viewpoint. He said that at the current stage, Cyprus is unlikely to be directly drawn into the ongoing conflicts. “People should remain calm,” he said, noting that while technological advancements mean that the British Sovereign Bases in Cyprus could be exposed to potential drone strikes, civilian targets are not seriously at risk.

Sözen highlighted that the world has been undergoing a systemic transition over the past 15 years. He explained that the so-called liberal and globalist order established under post-Cold War American hegemony is giving way to a multipolar system. In this process, old liberal norms such as territorial integrity and state sovereignty are losing significance, he said, noting that developments in Ukraine, Palestine, and now Iran should be understood within this context.

“Israel Has Dragged the US Into This Conflict”
Regarding Iran, Sözen argued that Israel perceives Iran as a threat and has drawn the United States into the conflict. He suggested that under the Biden administration, such a confrontation might not have occurred. Sözen asserted that the Trump administration’s relations with Israel and the influence of the Israeli lobby led the US into this war, framing it as part of a roughly 30-year strategic plan. He added that Israel’s efforts to ensure its security and control the surrounding region intersect with the broader systemic transformation.

Potential Involvement of Gulf States Could Escalate the Crisis
While hoping the conflict remains limited, Sözen warned that if Gulf countries were to become involved, it could trigger a much larger-scale crisis. He also noted the potential for Sunni-Shia tensions to emerge within the Islamic world, though he assessed this risk as low.

No Major Regime Change Expected in Iran in the Short Term
Answering whether the Iranian regime could collapse, Sözen said it is difficult to make definitive predictions. He does not expect a significant regime change in Iran in the short term, citing the absence of a strong, institutionalized opposition. He also highlighted Iran’s deeply rooted state memory, suggesting that while some changes may occur, the regime is likely to persist.

Turkey Pursues a Clever Neutrality Policy
Sözen also evaluated Turkey’s stance, stating that Ankara is attempting to play a mediator role amid systemic global transformations. He noted that Turkey has adopted a similar position in the Iran-Israel tension as it did in the Russia-Ukraine war, emphasizing that in a context where the future of the region is at stake, this approach is both strategic and rational.