Federation Model Emerges as Most Widely Accepted Solution at 75.94%

The Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS) published the findings of its June 2026 survey, based on face-to-face interviews with 500 participants as part of its quarterly public opinion research.

The study tracks Turkish Cypriots' perceptions of political trust, social trust, self-confidence and happiness, as well as how these indicators evolve over time in response to current developments.

Mine Yücel: Strong Public Desire for a Settlement

CMIRS Director Mine Yücel said the findings demonstrate widespread dissatisfaction with the unresolved Cyprus issue and show that a significant majority of the public wants a negotiated settlement.

She noted that 65.09% of respondents expressed support for reaching an agreement, indicating that a substantial portion of society no longer sees the current status quo as sustainable.

This finding is reinforced by the 59.96% who said the continuation of the current situation is unacceptable.

Yücel said the highest level of acceptance among proposed settlement models was recorded for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation based on political equality, supported by 75.94% of respondents.

She added that this level of support suggests a broad willingness within society to consider internationally recognised settlement parameters.

A confederal model was considered acceptable by 61.37% of respondents, indicating openness to alternative settlement options, while a unitary state model received support from only 25.95%, making it the least favoured option.

However, Yücel noted that support for a unitary state has increased compared with previous years, which she said may reflect growing dissatisfaction with the current situation.

Society Divided Over Living Together Again

Another notable finding concerns the prospect of Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots living together again.

According to the survey, 50.31% of respondents considered the idea acceptable.

Yücel said this indicates that society is almost evenly divided on the issue, highlighting that while support for a settlement remains high, greater efforts are needed to strengthen mutual trust and intercommunal relations.

Deadlock Fuels Economic and Security Concerns

The survey also found that the Cyprus issue remains a major source of concern not only politically but also economically, socially and in terms of security.

According to Yücel:

• 88.38% are concerned about the current uncertainty surrounding the Cyprus issue.
• 82.36% view the suspension or failure of negotiations as worrying.
• 92.58% are concerned about the possibility of increasing isolation and restrictions.
• 91.98% believe the unresolved Cyprus issue will slow economic development.
• More than 90% expressed concern over developments related to energy and security in the Eastern Mediterranean.
• 92.39% said recent energy and security agreements signed by the Greek Cypriot administration are a source of concern.

Support for Settlement Models Accompanied by Reservations

Yücel said the survey also revealed a complex relationship between support for settlement models and public concerns.

Although 75.94% found a federal solution acceptable, 63.52% also said they would have concerns about such a settlement.

She said this indicates that while society supports the idea of a solution, significant reservations remain regarding its implementation and possible consequences.

Similarly, 44.09% described a two-state solution as a cause for concern, suggesting that the public approaches all proposed settlement models with a degree of caution and is primarily seeking a practical solution capable of ensuring security, economic stability and political certainty.

Survey Highlights

Settlement Preferences

• 65.09% want an agreement to resolve the Cyprus issue.
• 59.96% consider the continuation of the status quo unacceptable.
• 50.31% find living together with Greek Cypriots again acceptable.
• 75.94% support a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation based on political equality.
• 61.37% consider a confederal solution acceptable.
• 25.95% support a unitary state model.

Key Concerns

• 88.38% are concerned by the uncertainty surrounding the Cyprus issue.
• 82.36% are worried about negotiations stalling or failing.
• 73.35% are concerned about Turkey's growing influence over northern Cyprus.
• 87.17% are concerned about the stance of international actors.
• 63.52% have concerns about a possible federal settlement.
• 44.09% are concerned about a two-state solution.
• 86.58% are worried that the current situation could continue unchanged for many years.
• 92.58% fear increased isolation and restrictions.
• 91.98% are concerned about the impact of the Cyprus issue on economic development.
• 89.57% are worried about the possibility of renewed tensions or conflict on the island.
• 90.78% are concerned about military and energy developments in the Eastern Mediterranean.
• 92.39% view recent energy and security agreements signed by the Greek Cypriot administration as worrying.

Conclusion

The survey concludes that a large majority of Turkish Cypriots are dissatisfied with the current status quo and favour a settlement to the Cyprus issue.

While a federal solution enjoys the highest level of public support, a confederal model also receives significant backing. Although support for a unitary state remains limited, it has increased compared with previous years.

The findings also show that public support for a settlement is accompanied by serious concerns over implementation, security, economic consequences and long-term stability.

Increasing isolation, economic stagnation, regional security developments and the continued deadlock in negotiations remain the public's greatest concerns.

Overall, the survey suggests that Turkish Cypriots no longer see the status quo as sustainable, but expect any future settlement to deliver lasting security, economic prosperity and political stability.

It concludes that future negotiations should not focus solely on achieving political agreement but should also address public concerns over security, uncertainty and confidence-building between the two communities.