UN Secretary-General Race Continues as Grynspan Emerges as Frontrunner

The Security Council conducted its fifth straw poll to assess the seven candidates seeking to replace Secretary-General António Guterres, whose term ends on December 31. The informal vote was held behind closed doors, with council members indicating their views on each candidate.

Greece’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Aglaia Balta, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, told reporters following the vote that each candidate would receive the results through the permanent representatives of the member states that nominated them. She added that the President of the General Assembly would also be informed that the straw poll had been conducted.

Balta did not provide a date for the next straw poll.

According to initial information from diplomatic sources, Grynspan led the latest round with nine “encourage” and six “discourage” votes.

She was followed by International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi, who received six “encourage,” seven “discourage” and two “no opinion” votes. Carolyn Rodrigues ranked third with five “encourage,” nine “discourage” and one “no opinion” vote.

The other candidates received the following results: former Senegalese President Macky Sall, five “encourage” and 10 “discourage”; Olara Otunnu, three “encourage” and 12 “discourage”; Maria Fernanda Espinosa, three “encourage,” nine “discourage” and three “no opinion”; and Ivonne Baki, zero “encourage,” 14 “discourage” and one “no opinion.”

UNSC Straw Poll

The confidential and informal straw poll is used to gauge the level of support for candidates competing to become the next UN secretary-general.

For each candidate, council members select one of three options on the ballot: “encourage,” “discourage” or “no opinion.”

During these rounds, all 15 council members, including the five permanent members with veto power, use the same ballot. Since the vote is conducted confidentially, each vote carries equal weight.

After a number of rounds, however, the Security Council begins using “color-coded” ballots. Red ballots are used for the five permanent members, while white ballots are used for the 10 elected members.

Because the five permanent members — the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France — have veto power, a “discourage” vote from one of these countries can significantly affect a candidate’s prospects.

Diplomatic sources said the sixth round of the straw poll, scheduled for October 16, could be conducted using color-coded ballots.

Race for New UN Secretary-General

Seven candidates are currently competing to succeed Guterres, who will leave office at the end of the year.

The candidates are Grossi; former Senegalese President Macky Sall; Grynspan, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), who has taken leave from her post to run for the position; Espinosa, who served as President of the UN General Assembly in 2018–2019; Guyana’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett; Otunnu, who served as Uganda’s Permanent Representative to the UN in the 1980s; and Ecuadorian politician and diplomat Ivonne Baki, the latest candidate to enter the race.

In closed-door sessions of the 15-member Security Council, a candidate must secure at least nine votes and avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members to be recommended to the General Assembly.

Although the UN Charter does not explicitly prohibit the Security Council from recommending more than one candidate, longstanding practice is for the Council to agree on a single candidate and recommend that person to the General Assembly.

It is expected to take some time for council members to reach agreement on a single candidate, with the new secretary-general expected to be determined by December at the latest.

The candidate who receives majority approval from the 193-member General Assembly will begin a five-year term as UN secretary-general on January 1, 2027.

Guterres, a Portuguese national who has served as UN secretary-general since 2017 and is completing his second five-year term, will leave office on December 31.