ARIMA Poll: CTP Leads as Gap With UBP Narrows to 8.5 Points

ARIMA Research & Consultancy data on voter preferences ahead of the December 6 parliamentary elections show the gap between the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) and the National Unity Party (UBP) narrowing. CTP’s support fell from 49.3% in May to 39.7% in September, while UBP’s rose from 23.7% to 31.2% over the same period.

The May–September results show CTP retaining first place, while UBP increased its support in each of the five monthly measurements. The gap between the two parties narrowed to 8.5 percentage points in September.

UBP RISES IN ALL FIVE MONTHLY MEASUREMENTS

UBP’s support increased from 23.7% in May to 26.9% in June, 27.5% in July and 28.1% in August. It reached 31.2% in September, marking a total increase of 7.5 percentage points over five months.

CTP’s support, meanwhile, fell from 49.3% in May to 47.2% in June, 44.4% in July and 43.4% in August. The September figure of 39.7% represented a decline of 9.6 percentage points compared with May.

CTP therefore maintained its lead, but its advantage over UBP narrowed considerably.

CTP LOSES SUPPORT AS TDP GAINS GROUND

The Communal Democracy Party (TDP) increased its support from 4% in May to 7.4% in September, moving into third place. Its gain of 3.4 percentage points over the period, alongside CTP’s 9.6-point decline, indicates a shift in the balance of support between the two parties in TDP’s favour.

The change was particularly pronounced in the August–September comparison. CTP’s support fell from 43.4% to 39.7%, while TDP’s rose from 5% to 7.4%. CTP thus lost 3.7 percentage points in one month, while TDP gained 2.4 points.

However, TDP’s rise did not make up for CTP’s losses. Combined support for the two parties fell from 53.3% in May to 47.1% in September, a decline of 6.2 percentage points. While TDP increased its share of support relative to CTP, their combined total continued to fall.

SEPTEMBER FIGURES FOR OTHER PARTIES

The Re-Birth Party (YDP), which recorded 7.2% in May and 7.6% in June, fell to 6.5% in August and 4.1% in September.

The 2.4-point decline between August and September coincided with the Filo Jet disaster off Kyrenia on August 30 and the political developments that followed. The figures alone, however, do not establish a causal link between those events and the change in support.

In the September measurement, the Democratic Party (DP) stood at 5.1%, the People’s Party (HP) at 4.3%, TAM Party at 2.3% and the Path of Independence at 1.6%. The “Other/Undecided” category accounted for 4.3%. This category does not represent undecided voters alone.

LEADING THE POLLS AND FORMING A GOVERNMENT ARE TWO DIFFERENT QUESTIONS

Adding the September figures arithmetically gives UBP and DP a combined 36.3%. Including YDP raises the total for the three parties to 40.4%. CTP and TDP together stand at 47.1%.

These totals do not indicate a confirmed alliance or determine the distribution of parliamentary seats.

As the election approaches, party rankings and the parliamentary majority needed to form a government will require separate consideration. The formation of the next government will depend on the number of seats won by each party and the political agreements reached after the election.